Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Chen  François P. Brissette  Pan Liu  Jun Xia 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4398-4413

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.  相似文献   

基于OSM的浮动车轨迹数据校正方法     

胡向勇  郭圆 《测绘通报》2020,(10):139

浮动车轨迹数据具有覆盖范围广、更新周期短、获取成本低等特点，对于地图的生产和更新具有重要意义，但是由于受到卫星信号被遮挡及多路径效应的影响，其精度普遍较低。本文采用一种基于OSM作为参考数据的方式对浮动车轨迹数据进行校正。首先通过一种分层时空地图匹配的方式将轨迹数据与OSM进行匹配；然后采用引力模型对数据进行校正；最后在武汉市出租车轨迹数据上进行了试验。结果表明，本文提出的数据校正方法可以有效地提高浮动车轨迹数据的精度。  相似文献   

Insights into the complexity of crustal differentiation: K2O‐poor leucosomes within metasedimentary migmatites from the Southern Marginal Zone of the Limpopo Belt,South Africa          下载免费PDF全文

G. Nicoli  G. Stevens  J‐F. Moyen  A. Vezinet  M. Mayne 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2017,35(9):999-1022

Differentiation of the continental crust is the result of complex interactions between a large number of processes, which govern partial melting of the deep crust, magma formation and segregation, and magma ascent to significantly higher crustal levels. The anatectic metasedimentary rocks exposed in the Southern Marginal Zone of the Limpopo Belt represent an unusually well‐exposed natural laboratory where the portion of these processes that operate in the deep crust can be directly investigated in the field. The formation of these migmatites occurred via absent incongruent melting reactions involving biotite, which produced cm‐ to m‐scale, K₂O‐poor garnet‐bearing stromatic leucosomes, with high Ca/Na ratios relative to their source rocks. Field investigation combined with geochemical analyses, and phase equilibrium modelling designed to investigate some aspects of disequilibrium partial melting show that the outcrop features and compositions of the leucosomes suggest several steps in their evolution: (1) Melting of a portion of the source, with restricted plagioclase availability due to kinetic controls, to produce a magma (melt + entrained peritectic minerals in variable proportions relative to melt); (2) Segregation of the magma at near peak metamorphic conditions into melt accumulation sites (MAS), also known as future leucosome; (3a) Re‐equilibration of the magma with a portion of the bounding mafic residuum via chemical diffusion (H₂O, K₂O), which triggers the co‐precipitation of quartz and plagioclase in the MAS; (3b) Extraction of melt‐dominated magma to higher crustal levels, leaving peritectic minerals entrained from the site of the melting reaction, and the minerals precipitated in the MASs to form the leucosome in the source. The key mechanism controlling this behaviour is the kinetically induced restriction of the amount of plagioclase available to the melting reaction. This results in elevated melt H₂O and K₂O and chemical potential gradient for these components across the leucosome/mafic residuum contact. The combination of all of these processes accurately explains the composition of the K₂O‐poor leucosomes. These findings have important implications for our understanding of melt segregation in the lower crust and minimum melt residency time which, according to the chemical modelling, is <5 years. We demonstrate that in some migmatitic granulites, the leucosomes constitute a type of felsic refractory residuum, rather than evidence of failed magma extraction. This provides a new insight into the ways that source heterogeneity may control anatexis.  相似文献   

SMAP卫星海表盐度产品的检验与校正     

秦思思  王辉  朱江  万莉颖  张宇  王昊运 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(3):148-158

In this study, sea surface salinity(SSS) Level 3(L3) daily product derived from soil moisture active passive(SMAP)during the year 2016, was validated and compared with SSS daily products derived from soil Moisture and ocean salinity(SMOS) and in-situ measurements. Generally, the root mean square error(RMSE) of the daily SSS products is larger along the coastal areas and at high latitudes and is smaller in the tropical regions and open oceans. Comparisons between the two types of daily satellite SSS product revealed that the RMSE was higher in the daily SMOS product than in the SMAP, whereas the bias of the daily SMOS was observed to be less than that of the SMAP when compared with Argo floats data. In addition, the latitude-dependent bias and RMSE of the SMAP SSS were found to be primarily influenced by the precipitation and the sea surface temperature(SST). Then, a regression analysis method which has adopted the precipitation and SST data was used to correct the larger bias of the daily SMAP product. It was confirmed that the corrected daily SMAP product could be used for assimilation in high-resolution forecast models, due to the fact that it was demonstrated to be unbiased and much closer to the in-situ measurements than the original uncorrected SMAP product.  相似文献   

Jason-2高度计电离层GIM误差分析及修正研究     

黄霞凤  苗洪利  苗翔鹰  薛文文 《海洋学报》2019,41(7):143-148

基于Jason-2高度计2015年地球物理数据集(GDR)38个周期太平洋海域的全球电离层图(GIM)电离层校正值和双频校正值的数据，分不同季度和不同纬度区域比较二者的差异，结果表明:GIM值与双频校正值之间存在明显的差异，GIM校正值普遍高于双频校正值，说明GIM高估了电离层路径延迟，GIM校正值与双频校正值的差异与季节和纬度区间有关。用梯度下降法得到GIM值的修正方程，将修正方程应用于2016年Jason-2的全年数据，修正后的GIM值与双频校正值十分接近，在各年份中均具有良好的适用性。在单频高度计不能使用电离层双频校正算法的情况下，可以利用不同季度和不同纬度区域的修正方程对同等高度的高度计GIM值进行修正以达到双频校正值的精度水平。  相似文献   

基于机器学习的海洋环境预报订正方法研究     

许立兵  王安喜  汪纯阳  陈悦  陈昱文  周峥  陈幸荣  邢建勇  刘克威  黄小猛 《海洋通报》2020,39(6):695-704

结合中尺度数值模式 WRF 预报数据和 ERA5 再分析资料，利用机器学习方法对 WRF 预报场的风场、温度、气压进行预报订正。采用 ERA5 作为真值，与原始 WRF 预报相比，利用随机森林模型可以将预报结果整体均方根误差降低 44%以 上，利用深度神经网络模型可以将预报结果整体均方根误差降低 34%以上。通过随机森林模型实验得到不同输入特征对预报要素的影响程度，分析了关键的预报订正因子。  相似文献   

北斗系统周跳探测与修复方法探究     

李彬 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(8):160-165

北斗卫星导航系统是中国自行研制的继美国GPS和俄罗斯GLONASS之后第3个成熟的卫星导航系统。进行GNSS相位数据处理的过程中,由于某种原因,载波相位观测值突然出现整周数的跳变的现象称为周跳。周跳现象的发生将会严重影响后续的数据处理,因此,有必要在解算前完成周跳探测与修复工作。本文就北斗系统周跳探测与修复课题进行了较为全面的探究,先后介绍了高次差法、多普勒法、伪距载波相位组合法、电离层残差法、三频数据组合探测法等一系列周跳探测与修复方法,可分别应用于不同频段接收机、不同观测环境、不同数据处理模式。  相似文献   

高速铁路桥墩偏移整治工程线上监测及结果分析     

张冀辉  王涛 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(6)

高速铁路建成运营后,受外部因素的影响,如在桥墩一侧施工、堆载等,会造成桥墩发生偏移,影响线路的平顺性,严重威胁高速铁路行车安全,需对其进行纠偏整治。本文以某城际高铁K19段高架桥桥墩的偏移整治工程为例,在整治期间,对线上监测点和轨道线形监测,根据监测结果指导施工,直至达到纠偏目标。监测结果表明了监测方案的有效性、正确性,能够对施工起到较好的指导作用,且能够为纠偏是否达到目标提供可靠的判断依据。可为类似高速铁路的纠偏整治及线上监测提供良好的参考。  相似文献   

南京雷达数据的一致性分析和订正          下载免费PDF全文

朱艺青  王振会  李南  徐芬  韩静  楚志刚  张晗昀  焦鹏程 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,74(2):298-308

运用几何匹配法处理了南京雷达和热带测雨卫星(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission,TRMM)上搭载的测雨雷达(Precipitation Radar,PR)的反射率因子探测资料,统计分析了2008—2013年共245个时次的匹配数据。 以TRMM PR工作多年持续稳定特征为参照,揭示了南京雷达6 a的探测资料情况。结果表明,南京雷达和TRMM PR探测降水具有较强的一致性,6 a时间里南京雷达存在一定的运行不稳定情况,南京雷达0℃层以下数据存在“3段特征”:时段Ⅰ2008年1月—2010年3月,时段Ⅱ2010年3月—2013年5月,时段Ⅲ2013年5—10月。3个时段之间整体回波强度有差异,时段Ⅱ整体回波强度比时段Ⅰ、Ⅲ偏小2—3 dB;而3个时段内的回波整体保持相对的稳定,南京雷达与TRMM PR的回波强度差值随回波强度的变化呈线性关系;在中低回波值时TRMM PR比南京雷达大,在中高回波值时南京雷达比TRMM PR大。基于两种雷达回波强度值的拟合关系,对南京雷达的反射率因子进行分段线性订正,有效地改善了南京雷达的一致性:3个时段回波强度的整体差异减小到0.75 dB以内;在245个匹配时次和105894个匹配点上南京雷达和TRMM PR的反射率因子的相关系数增大,南京雷达-TRMM PR值的标准差减小。  相似文献   

内蒙古河套灌区春玉米作物系数试验研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

侯琼  王海梅  云文丽  李建军 《应用气象学报》2016,27(4):417-425

作物系数曲线是估算作物生长季耗水量变化的重要参数。基于2013年4—9月内蒙古巴彦淖尔市临河区田间水分试验和1994—2013年气象站观测资料,利用水量平衡法反求春玉米作物系数,分析生长季内的变化规律, 建立动态模拟方程,并与联合国粮农组织 (FAO) 分段直线法结果进行比较, 提出胁迫条件下作物系数的叶面积修正方法。结果表明:玉米作物系数随发育进程可用三项式曲线描述,变化趋势与产量水平无关, 但随产量增高而变幅增大;以出苗后相对积温为时间变量建立模拟方程效果较好,决定系数 (R2) 均在0.92以上;模拟计算出各站点最大 (1.30~1.48) 和平均 (0.831~0.919) 作物系数,与FAO分段直线法计算的典型值和区间值基本一致,生长中期平均相对误差为3.4%~7.2%;提出利用相对叶面积指数修正作物系数的计算方法;通过2014年实例检验,土壤水分模拟值与实测值的平均相对误差为6.3%,相对误差小于15%的占95.8%。  相似文献